Wednesday, February 15, 2012

The Singularity

What then is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. - Ray Kurzweil

"the ever-accelerating progress of technology ... gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. - John Von Neumann
  

Who can argue with the above statements? Try to imagine your life a decade ago and you will realise how our lives have been transformed. However, it is quite deceptive, this technological creep that has been happening for years now. I know that the image that leaps most easily into our minds when we talk of technology is flat screen panels, and tablet computers, however the advances are immense in all spheres from medicine and communication to sports and education, and many others. On a day-to-day basis we take for granted the objects that surround us. As we gradually accrete the manifestations (and the implications) of this technology we pay no heed, the way we do not notice a child gaining height. However taken in gaps of 5 years to a decade, the leaps get significant.

As an example, we did not have Wi-Fi in the house five years ago, and Internet five years before that. I got the first home PC at the turn of the century, can you imagine that? Hence it was a decade ago that the necessity of a personal computer was felt. Before that the Computer was used purely for, and at work. When we did get the PC at home, we accessed the internet through a dial-up modem connected to our phone line, which got disconnected every time we received a call. (And my wife used to, and still does, get a lot of calls!!)

Today we are surrounded with tablets, laptops and smartphones that are meaningless without continuous connectivity, and use Bluetooth and Wi-Fi bridges to connect and interface with older components. So in 10 years my family has gone from no computer in the house, to constant high speed connectivity. In the same period the speed of the connectivity has gone from 24 kbits to 24 mpbs - a thousand fold increase. It used to take an hour to download a song, today I can download a HD movie in a couple of minutes. It is quite likely that in another few years the same could be in terabytes, and we will be taking those speeds for granted again!

Growing up, and very much into my adult life, we used to gather around the TV at 09.00 p.m. to catch the daily news round up. We thought nothing of newspapers reporting international news that was days old. Today news is flashed as it happens - instantaneously!

I distinctly remember how as a child, my one fervent desire (or wish) was that I could somehow get 20/20 vision, thus obviating the need for thick prescription glasses. Having had a "number" from the time I was ten, I recall how difficult it was to navigate life as a kid with thick glasses. Technology answered the call and I had LASIK surgery ten years ago. Though a bit too late to shield me from the abuse of school yard bullies, it still was a singular moment in my life.

I am reading a book titled "The Singularity is Near" which talks about these transformational events, and how technology is changing our lives, and this change is gaining speed - I repeat GAINING speed. Hence not only is change happening fast, it is happening faster and faster as we go along. Another observation that absolutely blew me away, was that this paradigm shift is doubling every decade, meaning that as the twentieth century was speeding up to its end rate of progress, its achievements were equivalent to only twenty years of progress at the rate in the year 2000. We will make another twenty years of progress in fourteen years (2014), and then the same again in ony seven years. This means that we won't experience one hundred years of technological advancement in the twenty first century; we will witness twenty thousand years of progress. This is the difference between linear and  exponential progression. 

Anyway before I bore you to death, I thought it might be a good idea to make a list of my personal introduction to various technologies over the years. Obviously my own experience in no way represents actual technological progression, as affordability (in most cases) played a huge part in my tardiness to adopt the same. This list will also allow me to compare my technological state in the future, with the current status. You are not required to read further, but may want to compile your own list.

B&W Still Camera – 196??
Gramophone (playing 78 rpm vinyl with radio) – 196??
Black and White TV - 1975??
Two in One Music Cassette player - 1977
Stereo with vinyl record player - 1982
Colour TV - 1984 (in time for the LA Olympics)
VCR (with wired remote) - 1985
Landline telephone - 1988
Walkman (with radio and recording) - 1988
Colour Still Camera - 1989
Component Music system - 1990
PC at work -1991
Video Camera with B&W display – 1992
Laser Disc Player – 1996
DVD Player - 1998
PC at home (along with internet) - 1999
Cell phone (completely skipped pagers and beepers) - 2000
Company laptop - 2001
Surround sound music system - 2002
Xbox with wired controllers - 2002
Digital Camera - 2004
IPod - 2005
Flat screen LCD TV - 2006
Blackberry - 2008,
Flat screen LED TV - 2009 
Set-top Box - 2009
IPhone - 2009
Ipad - 2010

Monday, February 6, 2012

My Way

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something - Steve Jobs

There are so many times when one wonders why one does what one does – or at least I do! Whether the price of getting out of bed is worth the rewards - emotional or physical? At such times of introspection I see the stage at which my life is and where I am, and wonder whether it was by plan or accident. More often than not the conclusion is that I stand where I do as an accidental tourist, having reached it without design or strategy.

But then, how many middle aged people can say with confidence that they are exactly where they wanted to be? And how many more who carry a facade, far removed from the reality within? The only people, who can say with certainty that they are where they wanted to be, are people whose goals and objectives have not changed over the intervening years. Their desires have stayed constant and unwavering, and hence they have been successful in achieving the same. But I think that it is difficult to want and chase the same thing at 40 that you did at 20. Maturity, exposure and experience add new dimensions, just as people and life do, making it almost impossible to stay true. Life's uncertainties make a mockery of man’s intent!

I was having a conversation with a friend this weekend, who is having a miserable time at work. Demotivated and dejected, every day is drudgery. He has not experienced this before, and really has no arrows in his quiver to counter the situation. Opportunities are scarce, and walking out is not an option. He is working on opening other doors, but that will take time, and hence, in the meanwhile, he has to endure. These would be tough days for him - days that tests his spirit to its very core, and the lack of options is the icing on this bitter dessert.

Driving to work in the mornings gives me ample time to ruminate, and this morning I was thinking about him. I have also gone through tough periods – when I had to do what I really did not want to! Whether you have been passed over for a promotion, or you are reporting to someone you do not respect. Whether it is the government, or the middleman who ate your commission. Whether it is your customer that has not paid you or your employer, the stress remains. Whether you work for yourself or someone else, hard days dawn on all. And tough days demand tough questions be asked.

An ordinary man’s life is measured by small indignities endured silently. The price of success, however one measures it, is always steep. Whether in time, health, relationships or values, the ends will always take their pound of flesh.

But what I was really thinking about, as I drove along with both my car and my mind on cruise control was - how many people actually live lives that they dictate? Something on the lines of the song "My Way"!! (If you have not heard that song, then please do, or at least read the lyrics.) The song is both uplifting and depressing. Uplifting because the song makes you think of how one "should" live their life, and depressing because the comparison with reality is quite often unflattering.

The fact remains that we all make small sacrifices, every day. And when times are tough, really tough - it is our family and our children’s faces in front of us, that carry us through the pain and the indignity. We always find something that makes it worthwhile, that makes us straighten our backs, widen our shoulders, lift our chins, and face the onslaught of another day in that particular paradise. And every time we straighten up, every time we shake off the effects of a sucker punch that life threw at us, we get up stronger.

And that brings me to the final thought, of how much deeper the cut, and how impotent all these acquired strengths will be, when our children have to endure the same. It is one thing to bear for oneself, the slings and arrows that fate throws, and quite another to see your offsprings flail under a similar onslaught.
At such times, all we can do is to point our children to the immortal words of Rudyard Kipling, an excerpt of which is below:-
…….
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
……..
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!