The Singularity

What then is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. - Ray Kurzweil

"the ever-accelerating progress of technology ... gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. - John Von Neumann

  

Who can argue with the above statements? Try to imagine your life a decade ago and you will realise how our lives have been transformed. However, it is quite deceptive, this technological creep that has been happening for years now. I know that the image that leaps most easily into our minds when we talk of technology is flat screen panels, and tablet computers, however the advances are immense in all spheres from medicine and communication to sports and education, and many others. On a day-to-day basis we take for granted the objects that surround us. As we gradually accrete the manifestations (and the implications) of this technology we pay no heed, the way we do not notice a child gaining height. However taken in gaps of 5 years to a decade, the leaps get significant.

As an example, we did not have Wi-Fi in the house five years ago, and Internet five years before that. I got the first home PC at the turn of the century, can you imagine that? Hence it was a decade ago that the necessity of a personal computer was felt. Before that the Computer was used purely for, and at work. When we did get the PC at home, we accessed the internet through a dial-up modem connected to our phone line, which got disconnected every time we received a call. (And my wife used to, and still does, get a lot of calls!!)

Today we are surrounded with tablets, laptops and smartphones that are meaningless without continuous connectivity, and use Bluetooth and Wi-Fi bridges to connect and interface with older components. So in 10 years my family has gone from no computer in the house, to constant high speed connectivity. In the same period the speed of the connectivity has gone from 24 kbits to 24 mpbs - a thousand fold increase. It used to take an hour to download a song, today I can download a HD movie in a couple of minutes. It is quite likely that in another few years the same could be in terabytes, and we will be taking those speeds for granted again!

Growing up, and very much into my adult life, we used to gather around the TV at 09.00 p.m. to catch the daily news round up. We thought nothing of newspapers reporting international news that was days old. Today news is flashed as it happens - instantaneously!

I distinctly remember how as a child, my one fervent desire (or wish) was that I could somehow get 20/20 vision, thus obviating the need for thick prescription glasses. Having had a "number" from the time I was ten, I recall how difficult it was to navigate life as a kid with thick glasses. Technology answered the call and I had LASIK surgery ten years ago. Though a bit too late to shield me from the abuse of school yard bullies, it still was a singular moment in my life.

I am reading a book titled "The Singularity is Near" which talks about these transformational events, and how technology is changing our lives, and this change is gaining speed - I repeat GAINING speed. Hence not only is change happening fast, it is happening faster and faster as we go along. Another observation that absolutely blew me away, was that this paradigm shift is doubling every decade, meaning that as the twentieth century was speeding up to its end rate of progress, its achievements were equivalent to only twenty years of progress at the rate in the year 2000. We will make another twenty years of progress in fourteen years (2014), and then the same again in ony seven years. This means that we won't experience one hundred years of technological advancement in the twenty first century; we will witness twenty thousand years of progress. This is the difference between linear and  exponential progression. 

Anyway before I bore you to death, I thought it might be a good idea to make a list of my personal introduction to various technologies over the years. Obviously my own experience in no way represents actual technological progression, as affordability (in most cases) played a huge part in my tardiness to adopt the same. This list will also allow me to compare my technological state in the future, with the current status. You are not required to read further, but may want to compile your own list.

B&W Still Camera – 196??

Gramophone (playing 78 rpm vinyl with radio) – 196??

Black and White TV - 1975??

Two in One Music Cassette player - 1977

Stereo with vinyl record player - 1982

Colour TV - 1984 (in time for the LA Olympics)

VCR (with wired remote) - 1985

Landline telephone - 1988

Walkman (with radio and recording) - 1988

Colour Still Camera - 1989

Component Music system - 1990

PC at work -1991

Video Camera with B&W display – 1992

Laser Disc Player – 1996

DVD Player - 1998

PC at home (along with internet) - 1999

Cell phone (completely skipped pagers and beepers) - 2000

Company laptop - 2001

Surround sound music system - 2002

Xbox with wired controllers - 2002

Digital Camera - 2004

IPod - 2005

Flat screen LCD TV - 2006

Blackberry - 2008,

Flat screen LED TV - 2009 
Set-top Box - 2009

IPhone - 2009

Ipad - 2010